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Research by Kevin L. Michel
Research you can read, test, and use.
Explore psychology, public policy, technology, and the questions behind them. Read the papers free, or preview interactive reports before becoming a member.
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From Caribbean development to the frontiers of physics.
New research · Institutions and civilian protection · Free
Beyond Fracture
A state can keep functioning while protection fails.
Explore Israel’s institutional resilience through April 2028: financial capacity, the rule of law and the protection people actually receive. Charts, an implementation register and explicit forecast review rules make the evidence inspectable.
01
Can the state keep operating?
02
Can the law constrain power?
03
Do people receive protection?
Three questions. Separate evidence. No single stability score.
New research · Saint Lucia · Free paper
Arrivals recovered.
What reached residents?
More visitors, fewer paid nights and higher real industry production can coexist. Explore what the evidence establishes, what it leaves unresolved and which measurements could change the answer.
2025 compared with 2019
Stay-over arrivals+0.7%
Published paid nights−13.6%
Real accommodation & food-services value added+9.7%
2025 preliminary; nights rounded. Industry value added is not total tourism value added or income reaching residents.
New research · Rent measurement · Free
Same budget. Different rent number. Different answer.
A broad HUD rent estimate and a ZIP-level estimate can give opposite answers to the same budget check. Explore eight U.S. housing areas and see how income, bedroom size, and the rent-share rule change the result.
One bedroom · $100,000 income · 30% rent share
Boston159 / 259Area fails · local estimate passes
Seattle31 / 153Area passes · local estimate fails
ZIP-area benchmark records, not available homes. Labels refer to official HUD areas.
Start here · Quantum foundations · Free
What would count as evidence for many worlds?
Quantum experiments can test remarkable claims about reality. But when several theories predict the same result, what have we learned? Explore five claims, real experiments, and the math that shows where the evidence reaches.
Kevin L. Michel · 38-page working paper · Version 1.0
Open research archive
18 complete papers. Free full text.
A selection from the open archive. Each publication includes an abstract, DOI, suggested citation, and direct PDF download. Explore the index for the complete collection.
Beyond Fracture
A state can keep functioning while legal safeguards and civilian protection deteriorate. A public-source assessment of Israel through April 2028, with reproducible analysis and explicit forecast review rules.
When Arrivals Recover but Paid Nights Do Not
Saint Lucia’s arrival counts, paid nights and real industry production show different recoveries. An audited record and measurement protocol explain what can be learned about income reaching residents.
When a Metro Rent Number Changes the Answer
Across eight U.S. HUD markets, choosing a metropolitan or ZIP-level rent estimate can change whether the same hypothetical household passes a rental-budget screen.
Inside an interactive report
Where does the tourism dollar go?
Caribbean Futures
Domestic Value Added from Visitor Expenditure in Saint Lucia
A transparent model estimating direct and multiplier-adjusted domestic value added per EC$1 of visitor spending, by segment and spending category.
Follow EC$1 of visitor spending through Saint Lucia’s economy. Explore how imports, overseas profits, and commissions change the amount that stays in the country.
Saint LuciaTourismEconomic leakageDomestic value addedSmall island development
Interactive reports
Find your question.
Preview any report for free. Basic membership includes the full models and analysis.
Caribbean Futures
Tourism, public finance, development, land, climate, institutions, and small-state strategy.
Caribbean Futures
Domestic Value Added from Visitor Expenditure in Saint Lucia
How much of the tourism dollar actually stays in Saint Lucia?
A transparent model estimating direct and multiplier-adjusted domestic value added per EC$1 of visitor spending, by segment and spending category.
Saint LuciaTourismEconomic leakageDomestic value added
Open research Caribbean Futures
Cruise Tourism vs Stayover Tourism in Saint Lucia
Which model produces more domestic value?
A focused comparison of visitor yield, leakage, employment, dwell time, and policy tradeoffs.
Saint LuciaCruiseStayoverTourism policy
Open research Caribbean Futures
Saint Lucia — The Water Reliability Question
What would it take for Saint Lucia to become water-secure?
A Saint Lucia water-security report on rainfall dependence, aging infrastructure, drought, household storage, hotel demand, watershed protection, tariffs, public trust, and climate-resilient investment.
Saint LuciaWaterClimate resiliencePublic infrastructure
Open research Caribbean Futures
Saint Lucia and the Energy Bill
How much does electricity dependence cost Saint Lucia's households, hotels, and future?
A research report on imported fuel exposure, electricity bills, grid resilience, solar, storage, geothermal possibilities, hotel competitiveness, and local energy ownership.
Saint LuciaEnergyRenewablesElectricity
Open research Caribbean Futures
Saint Lucia — The Youth Pathways Gap
Are young Saint Lucians being prepared for the work that actually creates income?
A Saint Lucia labor-market report on youth unemployment, school-to-work pipelines, tourism careers, trades, certifications, digital work, entrepreneurship, migration pressure, and the difference between having qualifications and having a real income ladder.
Saint LuciaYouthWorkSkills
Open research Caribbean Futures
The All-Inclusive Question
Development model or high-leakage operating model?
A Caribbean-wide research report on all-inclusive resorts, tourism leakage, local supplier linkages, worker income, ownership structure, and the public value of tourism incentives.
CaribbeanTourismAll-inclusive resortsEconomic leakage
Open research AI & Work
How AI changes income, productivity, writing, management, and the new middle class.
AI & Work
The AI Dividend
Who gets rich when everyone gets faster?
A practical research report on productivity capture, labor bargaining power, and the new AI-enabled middle class.
AIWorkProductivityLabor bargaining
Open research Frontier Physics & Space Futures
Serious speculative research on spacetime, causality, advanced propulsion, and the boundary between known physics and future engineering.
Frontier Physics & Space Futures
The Keys to Faster-than-Light Travel
Causal Transit Geometry and the Boundary Conditions for Effective Superluminal Motion
A theoretical physics research report reframing faster-than-light travel as a constrained problem in causal geometry, topology, stress-energy, quantum limits, and buildable initial conditions.
Faster-than-light travelGeneral relativityWarp drivesWormholes
Open research Law, Power & Public Records
Practical civic research on public access, governance, legal structures, and institutional power.
Law, Power & Public Records
Who Owns the Beach?
Saint Lucia, public access, and the Queen's Chain question.
A public-facing legal and civic research brief on beach access, land, tourism development, coastal rights, and the unresolved Queen's Chain question.
Saint LuciaBeach accessQueen's ChainForeshore
Open research Psychology & Human Performance
Attention, discipline, pressure, decision-making, courage, and personal agency under modern conditions.
Psychology & Human Performance
The Attention Crisis
AI, overload, and the collapse of focus.
A psychology and performance brief on attention fragmentation, AI acceleration, and practical discipline.
PsychologyAIPerformanceDigital Discipline
Open research Creator Economy & Publishing
Independent authorship, digital products, AI-assisted publishing, and building a durable creative business.
Creator Economy & Publishing
The Human Voice Premium
Why AI-sounding writing loses trust.
A research-backed guide to reader trust, AI assistance, authorship, disclosure, publishing, and the commercial value of authentic human voice.
AI writingHuman voiceAuthorshipReader trust
Open research Reading access
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Free papers
Read every abstract and download all 18 official full-text PDFs without an account or paywall. The Many Worlds visual guide is free too.
Interactive reports · $5/month
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Where offered, downloadable editions of interactive reports are sold separately. The official research papers remain free.