Policy systems
Beyond Fracture
A state can keep functioning while legal safeguards and civilian protection deteriorate. A public-source assessment of Israel through April 2028, with reproducible analysis and explicit forecast review rules.
Kevin L. Michel · Open research
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Saint Lucia evidence
When Arrivals Recover but Paid Nights Do Not
Saint Lucia’s arrival counts, paid nights and real industry production show different recoveries. An audited record and measurement protocol explain what can be learned about income reaching residents.
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Research methods
When a Metro Rent Number Changes the Answer
Across eight U.S. HUD markets, choosing a metropolitan or ZIP-level rent estimate can change whether the same hypothetical household passes a rental-budget screen.
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Quantum foundations
What Would Count as Evidence for Many Worlds?
What can quantum experiments tell us about many worlds? A framework for separating evidence for shared quantum laws from evidence that every branch is real.
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Saint Lucia evidence
Saint Lucia budget credibility
An 11-year plan-to-outturn assessment separating current revenue, grants, operating spending, and capital execution in Saint Lucia’s budgetary central government.
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Saint Lucia evidence
Saint Lucia’s household infrastructure divide
A household-level census analysis separating co-deprivation, local incidence, national caseload, and 2010–2022 change across Saint Lucia’s 12 census districts.
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Saint Lucia evidence
Saint Lucia’s published procurement record
A fixed-date census audit of 840 records on Saint Lucia’s Department of Finance tender portal, measuring availability, completeness, linkage, and observable competition.
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Policy systems
Beyond Chesterton’s Fence
A decision-relative framework for judging what must be understood before an institution is preserved, redesigned, replaced, or removed.
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Saint Lucia evidence
From output recovery to employment gains
A reproducible sector-level account of how Saint Lucia’s output recovery translated into jobs—and how unevenly those gains reached workers.
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Policy systems
Beyond the First Ripple
A mechanism-based framework for tracing direct incidence, participant adaptation, system propagation, and inherited state change in small open states.
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Policy systems
The Sovereign Option
A Lewisian architecture for decisive public action under systemic complexity, built around robust progress, viability boundaries, staged commitment, and future options.
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Saint Lucia evidence
The Inflation That Remained
A decomposition of Saint Lucia’s 2019–2025 consumer-price increase that distinguishes falling inflation from the high price level left behind.
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Psychology and human development
When self-presentation becomes self-evidence
A model of when aspirational self-presentation remains display, changes accessible self-views, organizes conduct, or contributes to personality change.
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Psychology and human development
Beyond Learned Helplessness
A dynamic model of when perceived control is calibrated, when a response fits available routes, and when persistence should give way to adaptive redirection.
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Psychology and human development
The Hotel-Room Problem
A person × visual-environment framework explaining how visual properties, learner differences, task demands, and adaptation jointly shape sustained academic attention.
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Psychology and human development
When prosocial dispositions become effective help
A recipient-centered model of how prosocial dispositions translate—or fail to translate—through exposure, recognition, responsibility, action, and benefit.
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Research integrity
Would you defend this decision in public?
A person × situation theory of prospective answerability at moments when researchers exercise consequential discretion.
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Research methods
Customer Interview Intelligence
A 10-stage framework for turning customer-interview transcripts into contextualized findings, opportunity hypotheses, and defensible next steps without erasing individual differences.
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Publication pages include the full title, abstract, author, date, keywords, and suggested citation. Follow the DOI to the publication record, or download the author’s full-text PDF directly.
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