When a Metro Rent Number Changes the Answer: A FY2027 Audit of Rental-Budget Screening Across Eight U.S. Job Markets

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Abstract

Choosing a metropolitan rent estimate or a ZIP-level estimate can change whether a hypothetical household passes a rental-budget screen. This descriptive study compares HUD Fair Market Rents (FMRs) with Small Area Fair Market Rents (SAFMRs) across eight prespecified HUD markets. The published FY2027 sample contains 2,538 ZIP-area benchmark records; all match the revised FY2026 sample, which has two additional records. The analysis tests annual gross household incomes of $45,000, $50,000, $75,000 and $100,000. Studios and one-bedroom units are primary, using a 30% rent share; two bedrooms and 35% and 40% shares test alternative assumptions. For one bedroom at $100,000 and 30%, Boston’s area benchmark fails while 159/259 local benchmarks pass (61.39%). Seattle shows the reverse: its area benchmark passes while 31/153 local benchmarks fail (20.26%). Bedroom size and the allowed share can change the direction of disagreement. Source checks, composite identifiers, a metadata-only workbook repair and a 24-case provenance audit make the calculations reproducible. The contribution is an updated decision audit building on established research on geography and rent measurement. Counts describe policy benchmarks, not available homes or people. Passing the screen does not establish overall affordability; changes between schedules are not observed inflation.