Part II - Decision Science You Can Use

Probabilities in Plain Language

Jenni and Greg are in a planning meeting. Jenni says, “It’s very likely we’ll hit our Q4 sales target.” Greg nods, thinking “very likely” means about 90% chance, as in almost certain.

Chapter 6 11 minute read 2,512 words

Contents Chapter 6

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Introduction Introduction Introduction

Part I - A Simpler Way to Think Chapter 1 Define the Real Problem Chapter 2 Break It to First Principles Chapter 3 Build a Minimum Model Chapter 4 Checklists, Scripts, and Shared Language

Part II - Decision Science You Can Use Chapter 5 Base Rates Before Stories Chapter 6 Probabilities in Plain Language Chapter 7 Expected Value and Bet Sizing Chapter 8 Reversible vs. One - Way Decisions

Part III - Physics You Can Feel Chapter 9 Leverage and Fulcrums Chapter 10 Inertia, Friction, and Momentum Chapter 11 Activation Energy and Starting Routines Chapter 12 Flow, Bottlenecks, and Throughput

Part IV - Biology You Already Run Chapter 13 Homeostasis and Set Points Chapter 14 Slack, Redundancy, and Resilience Chapter 15 Adaptation Loops and Selection Chapter 16 Energy, Recovery, and Cycles

Part V - Put It to Work Chapter 17 Meetings That Decide Chapter 18 Money Choices Under Uncertainty Chapter 19 Product Calls and Tradeoffs Chapter 20 Hiring, Teams, and Fit Chapter 21 Health and Relationships by Design

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