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FORECASTER · RESEARCH DRAFT

A Home Is Not a Jackpot

Housing, belonging, and the dangerous promise of effortless wealth

By Kevin L. MichelResearch draft · October 2026

A note before we begin

This book argues for a housing system whose success is measured by the lives people can build in it. Its people, household budgets and everyday scenes are imagined examples, not reported cases or memories from my life. Research findings are identified in the notes. The main institutional setting is the United States; examples from elsewhere are labeled and are not offered as ready-made imports. Policy proposals and practical questions are my arguments, not promises of a particular result or individualized financial, tax or legal advice. Evidence was checked through October 1, 2026.

The complete research draft is available here to read online. It remains open to revision; commissioning supports the finished, edited PDF edition.

Updated October 1, 2026. The finished, edited PDF edition is offered separately on the book details page.

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Contents

  1. 01

    The House on the Phone

    Separate the security a home provides from the rising entry price we have learned to celebrate.

  2. 02

    The Price of Getting In

    Understand how land, credit and leverage can raise the price of entry without creating a better home.

  3. 03

    The Ladder With Missing Rungs

    Look honestly at effort, family help and historical exclusion without making any household's worth depend on its tenure.

  4. 04

    The Rent Has a Deadline

    A fair rental system gives tenants usable rights, owners clear responsibilities, and both a housing market with enough real alternatives.

  5. 05

    The Neighborhood That Said No

    Local knowledge deserves a voice, while the people excluded from a neighborhood deserve representation in the decisions that keep them out.

  6. 06

    Build Homes People Can Reach

    New homes can ease pressure beyond their first occupants, while direct affordability, preservation, and competent public building reach needs the market does not reliably meet.

  7. 07

    Ownership Without the Gamble

    Expand the forms of ownership and tenure that offer control, durable affordability and a fair route out.

  8. 08

    A Better Deal for the People Already Here

    Make housing reform credible by protecting people through the transition without promising permanent scarcity gains.

  9. 09

    Stop Asking the House to Save Us

    Reduce the dependence of household security on rising land prices and recover a fair share of publicly created value.

  10. 10

    A Place in the Future

    Turn housing security into a practical public program and a clearer way to judge the choices in front of you.