A Forecaster research draft
By Kevin L. Michel
Digital PDF edition
Power & society · COMPLETE RESEARCH DRAFT
When the Rules Won't Sit Still
How to think about trade, power, and decisions under policy uncertainty
This research draft examines how changing rules affect decisions before they take effect. It compares research on uncertainty and investment, follows historical tariff announcements, and uses a transparent hypothetical model to weigh acting, waiting and taking a smaller step. It asks who pays while others wait and how institutions can make necessary changes more predictable. Commissioning supports the finished, edited PDF edition.
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Contents
- The Order That Hasn’t Been Placed
- What Changed Exactly
- What Waiting Buys
- Before the Deadline
- A Smaller Step
- Reading the Evidence
- Who Pays While We Wait
- A Promise That Can Change
- Making Change Possible
- A Decision We Can Explain
- Methods: A workshop under a possible rule change
The idea behind the book +
The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook examined how changing trade policies and elevated uncertainty could hinder growth. It is a dated analytical starting point for understanding these mechanisms, rather than a claim that its forecasts describe September 2026 conditions.
