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Forecaster
Complete research draft5 chapters published
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FORECASTER · RESEARCH DRAFT

Who Owns Tomorrow?

AI, ambition, and the fight over what comes next

By Kevin L. MichelComplete research draft

A note before we begin

A complete research draft is available below. Chapter 1 explains the scope; Chapter 2 provides the model-credit analysis and its limits; Chapter 5 includes the research and source note.

The complete research draft is available here to read online. It remains open to revision; commissioning supports the finished, edited PDF edition.

Updated October 14, 2026. The finished, edited PDF edition is offered separately on the book details page.

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Contents

  1. 01

    Progress toward whose future?

    AI progress needs a public purpose and ways for people to change the choices that shape their lives.

  2. 02

    The concentration of capability

    A reproducible model-credit analysis shows why concentration depends on what is counted, while infrastructure and switching costs raise separate concerns.

  3. 03

    Safety, access, and the choices between

    Access decisions should be tied to specific risks, evidence and ways to respond, rather than one label for every model.

  4. 04

    Who gets the gains?

    Workplace studies measure different outcomes; sharing gains requires choices about quality, pay, time and the work added by AI.

  5. 05

    Institutions for an open future

    Compare public compute, evaluation, disclosure and enforcement by the powers they actually provide, then test whether those powers can be used.