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Fair Market Rents Documentation System

The FY 2027 Caroline County, VA / Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area / Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area Small Area FMRs

The following are the steps used to calculate the 2-Bedroom Small Area Fair Market Rent of $1,510 for ZIP Code 22546.

  1. Evaluate the reliability of the current 5-year ACS Adjusted Standard Quality (ASQ) 40th percentile 2-Bedroom gross rent. If the estimate has a margin of error ratio of less than 50% and at least one hundred survey case, use this as the ZCTA base rent for the SAFMR for the current year.
  2. If the 2-Bedroom rent is not reliable, evaluate the 1-Bedroom gross rent. If this estimate is reliable, convert it to a 2-Bedroom rent using the appropriate bedroom ratio of the parent HUD metropolitan area or relevant non-metropolitan county.
  3. If the 2 and 1-Bedroom rents are not reliable, evaluate the 3-Bedroom gross rent. If this estimate is reliable, convert it to a 2-Bedroom rent using the appropriate bedroom ratio of the parent HUD metropolitan area or relevant non-metropolitan county.
  4. Repeat the above three steps for the previous two ACS years. If a ZIP code has reliable 2-Bedroom equivalent rents in at least two or the three ACS years, update the non-current year ACS estimates for inflation, and take the average of the reliable estimates as the base rent for FY2027.
  5. Calculate a FY2027 Small Area Fair Market Rent by multiplying this base rent by the recent mover factor, the gross rent inflation update factor, and the forecasted trend factor.
  6. If the ZIP code does not have a reliable base rent, evaluate the quality of its 5-year ACS Adjusted Standard Quality (ASQ) median all bedroom gross rent for the previous three ACS years. If at least two of these three estimates are reliable, calculate ratios of the ZIP code median gross rent estimate to that of the ZIP code's parent HUD metropolitan area or relevant non-metropolitan county. Take the average of these ratios. If the ZIP code does not have reliable ZIP code median gross rents, examine the reliability of the ZIP code's parent county. If at least two of these three estimates are reliable, calculate ratios of the county median gross rent estimate to that of the county's parent HUD metropolitan area or relevant non-metropolitan county. If county level estimates are not reliable, set the ratio to 1.
  7. If necessary, apply the ZIP code rent ratio to the FY2027 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent for the ZIP code's parent HUD metropolitan area or non-metropolitan county.
  8. Ensure that the 2-Bedroom SAFMR does not exceed 150% of the parent HUD metropolitan FMR or relevant non metropolitan county FMR.
  9. Ensure that the 2-Bedroom SAFMR is not lower than the ZIP code's parent state minimum FMR.
  10. Calculate SAFMRs for other bedroom sizes using the bedroom ratios for the ZIP code's parent HUD metropolitan area or non-metropolitan county.
  11. Ensure that the SAFMRs do not fall below the appropriate 90% floor.

The FY 2027 Caroline County, VA / Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area / Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area Small Area FMRs for All Bedroom Sizes in ZIP Code 22546

FY2027 SAFMRs By Unit Bedrooms
Efficiency One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom Three-Bedroom Four-Bedroom
$1,130 $1,250 $1,510 $2,090 $2,530

The remainder of this page provides complete documentation of the development of the Final FY 2027 2 Bedroom Small Area Fair Market Rent (FMR) for 22546 within the Caroline County, VA / Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area / Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area.

  1. Evaluate the bedroom size estimates of 40th percentile gross rent for 22546.

    ACS Release Bedroom Size Adjusted Standard Quality Estimate of 40th Percentile Gross Rent for 22546 Adjusted Standard Quality Margin of Error of 40th Percentile Gross Rent for 22546 Adjusted Standard Quality count indicator of 40th Percentile Gross Rent for 22546 Margin of Error Ratio Reliable? Two Bedroom Adjustment, if applicable Inflation Adjustment, if applicable
    2024 2-Bedroom $1,316 $640 1 $640 / $1,316
    =
    0.49     		No N/A N/A
    1-Bedroom N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
    3-Bedroom $1,652 $149 1 $149 / $1,652
    =
    0.09     		No $1,297 N/A
    2023 2-Bedroom $1,123 $71 1 $71 / $1,123
    =
    0.06     		No N/A N/A
    1-Bedroom N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
    3-Bedroom $1,624 $88 1 $88 / $1,624
    =
    0.05     		No $1,275 N/A
    2022 2-Bedroom $1,110 $249 1 $249 / $1,110
    =
    0.22     		No N/A N/A
    1-Bedroom N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
    3-Bedroom $1,721 $103 1 $103 / $1,721
    =
    0.06     		No $1,351 N/A

  2. Since 22546 does not have a useable bedroom base rent, its SAFMR will be based on a rent ratio.

  3. ZCTA level estimates of median gross rent will be used as the numerator for the small area rent ratio provided at least 2 of the most recent 3 estimates from 5-Year ACS samples are statistically reliable. Reliability is determined by calculating a margin of error ratio for each estimate. If the margin of error is less than 50% of the estimate, then it is considered reliable.

    ACS Release Adjusted Standard Quality Estimate of Median Gross Rent for 22546 Adjusted Standard Quality Margin of Error of Median Gross Rent for 22546 Margin of Error Ratio Reliable? Adjusted Standard Quality Estimate of Median Gross Rent for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area ZIP Code / Metro or County Ratio
    2024 $1,674 $118 $118 / $1,674 = 0.07 Yes $1,364 $1,674 / $1,364 = 1.227
    2023 $1,541 $191 $191 / $1,541 = 0.12 Yes $1,245 $1,541 / $1,245 = 1.238
    2022 $1,451 $150 $150 / $1,451 = 0.1 Yes $1,252 $1,451 / $1,252 = 1.159

  4. Because 3 out of 3 ZCTA level estimates are reliable, their average will be used as the numerator for the small area rent ratio.

    2022 Ratio 2023 Ratio 2024 Ratio Average of Reliable Ratios (Small Area Rent Ratio)
    1.159 1.238 1.227 1.209

  5. Apply the Small Area Rent Ratio for 22546 to the FY 2027 Fair Market Rent for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area, rounding to the nearest $10.

    ZIP Code 22546 Small Area Rent Ratio Fair Market Rent for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area Preliminary 2 Bedroom Small Area FMR for 22546
    1.209 $1,248 $1,510

  6. Ensure that the 2 Bedroom Small Area FMR does not fall below the State Minimum FMR.

    Preliminary 2 Bedroom Small Area FMR for 22546 State Minimum 2 Bedroom Small Area FMR for 22546
    $1,510 $1,014 Do Not Use State Minimum

  7. The FY2027 SAFMR must not be below 90% of the FY2026 FMR.

    Efficiency One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom Three-Bedroom Four-Bedroom
    FY2026 FMR $1,250 $1,280 $1,560 $2,170 $2,620
    FY2026 Floor $1,130 $1,160 $1,410 $1,960 $2,360
    Preliminary FY 2027 SAFMR $1,050 $1,250 $1,510 $2,090 $2,530
    Use FY2026 floor for FY2027? Yes No No No No
    FY2027 SAFMR $1,130 $1,250 $1,510 $2,090 $2,530